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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans improving collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still